Spatial and Temporal Epidemiology of Lumpy Skin Disease in the Middle East, 2012-2015.

ABSTRACT: Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious disease of cattle that can have severe economic implications. New LSD outbreaks are currently circulating in the Middle East (ME). Since 2012, severe outbreaks were reported in cattle across the region. Characterizing the spatial and temporal dynamics of LSDV in cattle populations is prerequisite for guiding successful surveillance and control efforts at a regional level in the ME. Here, we aim to model the ecological niche of LSDV and identify epidemic progression patterns over the course of the epidemic. We analyzed publically available outbreak data from the ME for the period 2012-2015 using presence-only maximum entropy ecological niche modeling and the time-dependent method for the estimation of the effective reproductive number (R-TD).

SUBMITTER: Alkhamis MA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4776163 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature