Modeling Future Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the United States: National Trends and Racial and Ethnic Disparities.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Accurate forecasting of cardiovascular disease mortality is crucial to guide policy and programming efforts. Prior forecasts often have not incorporated past trends in rates of reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality. This creates uncertainties about future trends in cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities.

Methods and results

To forecast US cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities to 2030, we developed a hierarchical bayesian model to determine and incorporate prior age, period, and cohort effects from 1979 to 2012, stratified by age, sex, and race, which we combined with expected demographic shifts to 2030. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) single-year population

SUBMITTER: Pearson-Stuttard J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4783256 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature