Outbreak definition by change point analysis: a tool for public health decision?

ABSTRACT:

Background

Most studies of epidemic detection focus on their start and rarely on the whole signal or the end of the epidemic. In some cases, it may be necessary to retrospectively identify outbreak signals from surveillance data. Our study aims at evaluating the ability of change point analysis (CPA) methods to locate the whole disease outbreak signal. We will compare our approach with the results coming from experts' signal inspections, considered as the gold standard method.

Methods

We simulated 840 time series, each of which includes an epidemic-free baseline (7 options) and a type of epidemic (4 options). We tested the ability of 4 CPA methods (Max-likelihood, Kruskall-Wallis, Kernel, Bayesian) methods and expert inspection to identify the simulated outbreaks. We evaluat

SUBMITTER: Texier G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4788889 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature