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"Pandemic Public Health Paradox": Time Series Analysis of the 2009/10 Influenza A / H1N1 Epidemiology, Media Attention, Risk Perception and Public Reactions in 5 European Countries.

ABSTRACT: In 2009, influenza A H1N1 caused the first pandemic of the 21st century. Although a vaccine against this influenza subtype was offered before or at the onset of the second epidemic wave that caused most of the fatal cases in Europe, vaccination rates for that season were lower than expected. We propose that the contradiction between high risk of infection and low use of available prevention measures represents a pandemic public health paradox. This research aims for a better understanding of this paradox by exploring the time-dependent interplay among changing influenza epidemiology, media attention, pandemic control measures, risk perception and public health behavior among five European countries (Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Spain and the UK). Findings suggest that asynchronicity between media curves and epidemiological curves may potentially explain the pandemic public health paradox; media attention for influenza A H1N1 in Europe declined long before the epidemic reached its peak, and public risk perceptions and behaviors may have followed media logic, rather than epidemiological logic.

SUBMITTER: Reintjes R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4794201 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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"Pandemic Public Health Paradox": Time Series Analysis of the 2009/10 Influenza A / H1N1 Epidemiology, Media Attention, Risk Perception and Public Reactions in 5 European Countries.

Reintjes Ralf R Das Enny E Klemm Celine C Richardus Jan Hendrik JH Keßler Verena V Ahmad Amena A

PloS one 20160316 3

In 2009, influenza A H1N1 caused the first pandemic of the 21st century. Although a vaccine against this influenza subtype was offered before or at the onset of the second epidemic wave that caused most of the fatal cases in Europe, vaccination rates for that season were lower than expected. We propose that the contradiction between high risk of infection and low use of available prevention measures represents a pandemic public health paradox. This research aims for a better understanding of thi ...[more]

PMID: 26982071

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Project description:BackgroundIn France, the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza epidemic occurred between September 2009 and January 2010. Sparking widespread controversy, it was intensely reported in the media. Despite therapeutic inefficacy, antibiotic consumption and viral respiratory infections are positively correlated, particularly in France, where antibiotic overconsumption is well-known. We first determined the period when media coverage was high, and then compared, during this period, observed outpatient antibiotic consumption to estimated outpatient antibiotic consumption "without media attention".Materials and methodsTO EVALUATE MEDIA COVERAGE, TWO ONLINE DATABASES WERE CONSULTED: Factiva and Europresse. To quantify outpatient antibiotic consumption, we used data on reimbursements of outpatient systemic antibiotics from the computerized databases of the two main National Health Insurance agencies. Influenza-like syndromes data came from the French GPs Sentinelles Network. Weekly time-series of antibiotic consumption were modeled by autoregressive moving-average models with exogenous inputs and interventions. Analyses were computed for the entire series and by age group (0-5, 6-15, 16-60, and >60 years).ResultsMedia coverage was intense between April 2009 and January 2010. No effect on total outpatient antibiotic consumption was observed during the whole mediatic period. However, during the epidemic in France (September 2009-January 2010), we found an antibiotic underconsumption for the entire series, 0-5 and >60 years. Additionally, at the beginning of the pandemic, when cases were still outside France (June 2009-August 2009), we found an antibiotic overconsumption for patients >16 years.ConclusionThe early period of A(H1N1) virus circulation compared with seasonal influenza or an overdeclaration of ILS cases might explain the antibiotic underconsumption observed during the period of active A(H1N1) virus transmission in France. At the pandemic onset, when uncertainty was high, the overconsumption observed for individuals >16 years might have been caused by alarmist media reporting. Additional analyses are needed to understand the determinants of antibiotic consumption during this period.

Project description:BackgroundMexico's local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April-December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission.Methods and findingsWe used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs) hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April-December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April-May (Mexico City area), a second wave in June-July (southeastern states), and a geographically widespread third wave in August-December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ? 18 years overall and increased to ? 31 years during autumn (p<0.0001). The case-fatality ratio among ILI cases was 1.2% overall, and highest (5.5%) among people over 60 years. The regional R estimates were 1.8-2.1, 1.6-1.9, and 1.2-1.3 for the spring, summer, and fall waves, respectively. We estimate that the 18-day period of mandatory school closures and other social distancing measures implemented in the greater Mexico City area was associated with a 29%-37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school suspension resumed and before summer vacation started. State-specific fall pandemic waves began 2-5 weeks after school reopened for the fall term, coinciding with an age shift in influenza cases.ConclusionsWe documented three spatially heterogeneous waves of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic virus in Mexico, which were characterized by a relatively young age distribution of cases. Our study highlights the importance of school cycles on the transmission dynamics of this pandemic influenza strain and suggests that school closure and other mitigation measures could be useful to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Project description:BackgroundFollowing the emergence of 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (A[H1N1]pdm09) in the United States and Mexico in April 2009, A(H1N1)pdm09 spread rapidly all over the world. There is a dearth of information about the epidemiology of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Africa, including Morocco. We describe the epidemiologic characteristics of the A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic in Morocco during 2009-2010, including transmissibility and risk factors associated with fatal disease.MethodsWe implemented influenza surveillance for patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) at 136 private and public clinics for patients with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) at 16 regional public hospitals from June 2009 through February 2010. Respiratory samples and structured questionnaires were collected from all enrolled patients, and samples were tested by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction for influenza viruses. We estimated the risk factors associated with fatal disease as well as the basic reproduction number (R(0)) and the serial interval of the pandemic virus.ResultsFrom June 2009 through February 2010, we obtained 3937 specimens, of which 1452 tested positive for influenza virus. Of these, 1398 (96%) were A(H1N1)pdm09. Forty percent of specimens from ILI cases (1056 of 2646) and 27% from SARI cases (342 of 1291) were positive for A(H1N1)pdm09. Sixty-four deaths occurred among laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 SARI cases. Among these cases, those who had hypertension (age-adjusted odd ratio [aOR], 28.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-398.7), had neurological disorders (aOR, 7.5; 95% CI, 1.5-36.4), or were obese (aOR, 7.1; 95% CI, 1.6-31.1), as well as women of gestational age who were pregnant (aOR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.1-5.6), were at increased risk of death. Across the country, elevated numbers of locally acquired infections were detected 4 months after the detection of the first laboratory-confirmed case and coincided with the expected influenza season (October-January) in Morocco. We obtained an R(0) estimate of 1.44 (95% CI, 1.32-1.56) and a mean serial interval (±SD) of 2.3 ± 1.4 days (95% CI, 1.6-3.0).ConclusionWidespread but delayed community transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09 occurred in Morocco in 2009, and A(H1N1)pdm09 became the dominant influenza virus subtype during the 2009-2010 influenza season. The transmissibility characteristics were similar to those observed in other countries.

Project description:BackgroundPrior experience and the persisting threat of influenza pandemic indicate the need for global and local preparedness and public health response capacity. The pandemic of 2009 highlighted the importance of such planning and the value of prior efforts at all levels. Our review of the public health response to this pandemic in Pune, India, considers the challenges of integrating global and national strategies in local programmes and lessons learned for influenza pandemic preparedness.MethodsGlobal, national and local pandemic preparedness and response plans have been reviewed. In-depth interviews were undertaken with district health policy-makers and administrators who coordinated the pandemic response in Pune.ResultsIn the absence of a comprehensive district-level pandemic preparedness plan, the response had to be improvised. Media reporting of the influenza pandemic and inaccurate information that was reported at times contributed to anxiety in the general public and to widespread fear and panic. Additional challenges included inadequate public health services and reluctance of private healthcare providers to treat people with flu-like symptoms. Policy-makers developed a response strategy that they referred to as the Pune plan, which relied on powers sanctioned by the Epidemic Act of 1897 and resources made available by the union health ministry, state health department and a government diagnostic laboratory in Pune.ConclusionThe World Health Organization's (WHO's) global strategy for pandemic control focuses on national planning, but state-level and local experience in a large nation like India shows how national planning may be adapted and implemented. The priority of local experience and requirements does not negate the need for higher level planning. It does, however, indicate the importance of local adaptability as an essential feature of the planning process. Experience and the implicit Pune plan that emerged are relevant for pandemic preparedness and other public health emergencies.

Dataset Information

"Pandemic Public Health Paradox": Time Series Analysis of the 2009/10 Influenza A / H1N1 Epidemiology, Media Attention, Risk Perception and Public Reactions in 5 European Countries.

Publications

"Pandemic Public Health Paradox": Time Series Analysis of the 2009/10 Influenza A / H1N1 Epidemiology, Media Attention, Risk Perception and Public Reactions in 5 European Countries.

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