Quantitative Risk Assessment for African Horse Sickness in Live Horses Exported from South Africa.

ABSTRACT: African horse sickness (AHS) is a severe, often fatal, arbovirus infection of horses, transmitted by Culicoides spp. midges. AHS occurs in most of sub-Saharan Africa and is a significant impediment to export of live horses from infected countries, such as South Africa. A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the probability of exporting an undetected AHS-infected horse through a vector protected pre-export quarantine facility, in accordance with OIE recommendations for trade from an infected country. The model also allows for additional risk management measures, including multiple PCR tests prior to and during pre-export quarantine and optionally during post-arrival quarantine, as well as for comparison of risk associated with exports from a demonstrated low-risk area for AHS and

SUBMITTER: Sergeant ES 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4795756 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature