Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries.

ABSTRACT: We show that Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, works for data of widely varying quality. Bayesian reconstruction simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction uses initial bias-reduced estimates of standard demographic variables. We reconstruct the female populations of three countries: Laos, a country with little vital registration data where population estimation depends largely on surveys; Sri Lanka, a country with some vital registration data; and New Zealand, a country with a highly developed statistical system and good quality vital registr

SUBMITTER: Wheldon MC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4798897 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature