An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

ABSTRACT: An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future cli

SUBMITTER: Casajus N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4807766 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature