A dynamic model for the outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Taiwan.

ABSTRACT: The first large outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with severe complications primarily caused by enterovirus 71 was reported in Taiwan in 1998. Surveillance of HFMD to evaluate the spread of HFMD with and without infection control policy is needed. We developed a new dynamic epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to fit the surveillance data on containing valuable information on the severity of HFMD in order to accurately estimate the basic reproductive number (R 0) of HFMD. After fitting the empirical data, in conjunction with other relevant parameters extracted from the literature, the estimated transmission coefficients were close to 5 × 10-7 (per day) and the proportion of severe HFMD cases ranged between 0 and 0·0036 (per day). Taking into account the distri

SUBMITTER: Lai CC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4823833 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature