Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men in Poland at the end of 2009.

ABSTRACT: HIV spread in men who have sex with men (MSM) is an increasing problem in Poland. Despite the existence of a surveillance system, there is no direct evidence to allow estimation of HIV prevalence and the proportion undiagnosed in MSM. We extracted data on HIV and the MSM population in Poland, including case-based surveillance data, diagnostic testing prevalence data and behavioural data relating to self-reported prior diagnosis, stratified by age (⩽35, >35 years) and region (Mazowieckie including the capital city of Warsaw; other regions). They were integrated into one model based on a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach. The posterior distributions for HIV prevalence and the undiagnosed fraction were estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. To improve the model fit we repeated the

SUBMITTER: Rosinska M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4825105 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature