Dataset Information

Projecting Month of Birth for At-Risk Infants after Zika Virus Disease Outbreaks.

ABSTRACT: The marked increase in infants born with microcephaly in Brazil after a 2015 outbreak of Zika virus (Zika virus) disease suggests an association between maternal Zika virus infection and congenital microcephaly. To project the timing of delivery of infants born to mothers infected during early pregnancy in 1 city in Bahia State, Brazil, we incorporated data on reported Zika virus disease cases and microcephaly cases into a graphical schematic of weekly birth cohorts. We projected that these births would occur through February 2016. Applying similar projections to a hypothetical location at which Zika virus transmission started in November, we projected that full-term infants at risk for Zika virus infection would be born during April-September 2016. We also developed a modifiable spreadsheet tool that public health officials and researchers can use for their countries to plan for deliveries of infants to women who were infected with Zika virus during different pregnancy trimesters.

SUBMITTER: Reefhuis J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4861542 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Projecting Month of Birth for At-Risk Infants after Zika Virus Disease Outbreaks.

Reefhuis Jennita J Gilboa Suzanne M SM Johansson Michael A MA Valencia Diana D Simeone Regina M RM Hills Susan L SL Polen Kara K Jamieson Denise J DJ Petersen Lyle R LR Honein Margaret A MA

Emerging infectious diseases 20160501 5

The marked increase in infants born with microcephaly in Brazil after a 2015 outbreak of Zika virus (Zika virus) disease suggests an association between maternal Zika virus infection and congenital microcephaly. To project the timing of delivery of infants born to mothers infected during early pregnancy in 1 city in Bahia State, Brazil, we incorporated data on reported Zika virus disease cases and microcephaly cases into a graphical schematic of weekly birth cohorts. We projected that these birt ...[more]

PMID: 27088494

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundZika virus infection during pregnancy can cause serious birth defects, which include brain and eye abnormalities. The clinical importance of detection of Zika virus RNA in amniotic fluid is unknown.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to describe patterns of Zika virus RNA testing of amniotic fluid relative to other clinical specimens and to examine the association between Zika virus detection in amniotic fluid and Zika-associated birth defects. Our null hypothesis was that Zika virus detection in amniotic fluid was not associated with Zika-associated birth defects.Study designWe conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of women with amniotic fluid specimens submitted to Colombia's National Institute of Health as part of national Zika virus surveillance from January 2016 to January 2017. Specimens (maternal serum, amniotic fluid, cord blood, umbilical cord tissue, and placental tissue) were tested for the presence of Zika virus RNA with the use of a singleplex or multiplex real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay. Birth defect information was abstracted from maternal prenatal and infant birth records and reviewed by expert clinicians. Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used to compare the frequency of Zika-associated birth defects (defined as brain abnormalities [with or without microcephaly, but excluding neural tube defects and their associated findings] or eye abnormalities) by frequency of detection of Zika virus RNA in amniotic fluid.ResultsOur analysis included 128 women with amniotic fluid specimens. Seventy-five women (58%) had prenatally collected amniotic fluid; 42 women (33%) had amniotic fluid collected at delivery, and 11 women (9%) had missing collection dates. Ninety-one women had both amniotic fluid and other clinical specimens submitted for testing, which allowed for comparison across specimen types. Of those 91 women, 68 had evidence of Zika virus infection based on detection of Zika virus RNA in ≥1 specimen. Testing of amniotic fluid that was collected prenatally or at delivery identified 39 of these Zika virus infections (57%; 15 [22%] infections were identified only in amniotic fluid), and 29 infections (43%) were identified in other specimen types and not amniotic fluid. Among women who were included in the analysis, 89 had pregnancy outcome information available, which allowed for the assessment of the presence of Zika-associated birth defects. Zika-associated birth defects were significantly (P<.05) more common among pregnancies with Zika virus RNA detected in amniotic fluid specimens collected prenatally (19/32 specimens; 59%) than for those with no laboratory evidence of Zika virus infection in any specimen (6/23 specimens; 26%), but the proportion was similar in pregnancies with only Zika virus RNA detected in specimens other than amniotic fluid (10/23 specimens; 43%). Although Zika-associated birth defects were more common among women with any Zika virus RNA detected in amniotic fluid specimens (ie, collected prenatally or at delivery; 21/43 specimens; 49%) than those with no laboratory evidence of Zika virus infection (6/23 specimens; 26%), this comparison did not reach statistical significance (P=.07).ConclusionTesting of amniotic fluid provided additional evidence for maternal diagnosis of Zika virus infection. Zika-associated birth defects were more common among women with Zika virus RNA that was detected in prenatal amniotic fluid specimens than women with no laboratory evidence of Zika virus infection, but similar to women with Zika virus RNA detected in other, nonamniotic fluid specimen types.

Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries.MethodsOur analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories.ResultsThere was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p < 0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.

Dataset Information

Projecting Month of Birth for At-Risk Infants after Zika Virus Disease Outbreaks.

Publications

Projecting Month of Birth for At-Risk Infants after Zika Virus Disease Outbreaks.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets