Prospects for HIV control in South Africa: a model-based analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The goal of virtual elimination of horizontal and mother-to-child HIV transmission in South Africa (SA) has been proposed, but there have been few systematic investigations of which interventions are likely to be most critical to reducing HIV incidence.

Objective

This study aims to evaluate SA's potential to achieve virtual elimination targets and to identify which interventions will be most critical to achieving HIV incidence reductions.

Design

A mathematical model was developed to simulate the population-level impact of different HIV interventions in SA. Probability distributions were specified to represent uncertainty around 32 epidemiological parameters that could be influenced by interventions, and correlation coefficients (r) were calculated to assess

SUBMITTER: Johnson LF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4901512 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature