Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe.

ABSTRACT: Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901-2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is cu

SUBMITTER: Liu-Helmersson J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4909611 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature