Modelling Influence and Opinion Evolution in Online Collective Behaviour.

ABSTRACT: Opinion evolution and judgment revision are mediated through social influence. Based on a large crowdsourced in vitro experiment (n = 861), it is shown how a consensus model can be used to predict opinion evolution in online collective behaviour. It is the first time the predictive power of a quantitative model of opinion dynamics is tested against a real dataset. Unlike previous research on the topic, the model was validated on data which did not serve to calibrate it. This avoids to favor more complex models over more simple ones and prevents overfitting. The model is parametrized by the influenceability of each individual, a factor representing to what extent individuals incorporate external judgments. The prediction accuracy depends on prior knowledge on the participants' past behaviou

SUBMITTER: Vande Kerckhove C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4918933 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature