How to Estimate Epidemic Risk from Incomplete Contact Diaries Data?

ABSTRACT: Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we investigate if

SUBMITTER: Mastrandrea R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4920368 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature