Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model for Early Warning at the Start of a Hand Foot Mouth Disease Epidemic in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a human syndrome caused by intestinal viruses like that coxsackie A virus 16, enterovirus 71 and easily developed into outbreak in kindergarten and school. Scientifically and accurately early detection of the start time of HFMD epidemic is a key principle in planning of control measures and minimizing the impact of HFMD. The objective of this study was to establish a reliable early detection model for start timing of hand foot mouth disease epidemic in Dalian and to evaluate the performance of model by analyzing the sensitivity in detectability.

Methods

The negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the weekly baseline case number of HFMD and identified the optimal alerting threshold between tested difference

SUBMITTER: An Q 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4922662 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature