Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory.

ABSTRACT: We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, and so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a Generalized Pareto Distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-EVT model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emiss

SUBMITTER: Shen L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4930155 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature