A Mathematical Model that Simulates Control Options for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV).

ABSTRACT: A stochastic model designed to simulate transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in a free-ranging pig population under various intervention scenarios is presented. The model was used to assess the relative impact of the timing of the implementation of different control strategies on disease-related mortality. The implementation of biosecurity measures was simulated through incorporation of a decay function on the transmission rate. The model predicts that biosecurity measures implemented within 14 days of the onset of an epidemic can avert up to 74% of pig deaths due to ASF while hypothetical vaccines that confer 70% immunity when deployed prior to day 14 of the epidemic could avert 65% of pig deaths. When the two control measures are combined, the model predicts that 91%

SUBMITTER: Barongo MB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4938631 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature