Estimation of the Undiagnosed Intervals of HIV-Infected Individuals by a Modified Back-Calculation Method for Reconstructing the Epidemic Curves.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Undiagnosed infections accounted for the hidden proportion of HIV cases that have escaped from public health surveillance. To assess the population risk of HIV transmission, we estimated the undiagnosed interval of each known infection for constructing the HIV incidence curves.

Methods

We used modified back-calculation methods to estimate the seroconversion year for each diagnosed patient attending any one of the 3 HIV specialist clinics in Hong Kong. Three approaches were used, depending on the adequacy of CD4 data: (A) estimating one's pre-treatment CD4 depletion rate in multilevel model;(B) projecting one's seroconversion year by referencing seroconverters' CD4 depletion rate; or (C) projecting from the distribution of estimated undiagnosed intervals in (B). Fa

SUBMITTER: Wong NS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4942036 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature