Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous U.S. Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble.

ABSTRACT: Characterizing precipitation seasonality and variability in the face of future uncertainty is important for a well-informed climate change adaptation strategy. Using the Colwell index of predictability and monthly normalized precipitation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensembles, this study identifies spatial hotspots of changes in precipitation predictability in the United States under various climate scenarios. Over the historic period (1950-2005), the recurrent pattern of precipitation is highly predictable in the East and along the coastal Northwest, and is less so in the arid Southwest. Comparing the future (2040-2095) to the historic period, larger changes in precipitation predictability are observed under Representative Concentration

SUBMITTER: Jiang M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4947969 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature