Future of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence in the United States Forecast Through 2030.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates have been increasing in the United States for the past 35 years. Because HCC has a poor prognosis, quantitative forecasts could help to inform prevention and treatment strategies to reduce the incidence and burden of HCC.

Methods

Single-year HCC incident case and population data for the years 2000 to 2012 and ages 35 to 84 years were obtained from the SEER 18 Registry Database. We forecast incident HCC cases through 2030, using novel age-period-cohort models and stratifying by sex, race/ethnicity, and age. Rates are presented because absolute numbers may be influenced by population increases.

Results

Rates of HCC increased with each successive birth cohort through 1959. However, rates began to decrease with the 19

SUBMITTER: Petrick JL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4966339 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature