What Should Researchers Expect When They Replicate Studies? A Statistical View of Replicability in Psychological Science.

ABSTRACT: A recent study of the replicability of key psychological findings is a major contribution toward understanding the human side of the scientific process. Despite the careful and nuanced analysis reported, the simple narrative disseminated by the mass, social, and scientific media was that in only 36% of the studies were the original results replicated. In the current study, however, we showed that 77% of the replication effect sizes reported were within a 95% prediction interval calculated using the original effect size. Our analysis suggests two critical issues in understanding replication of psychological studies. First, researchers' intuitive expectations for what a replication should show do not always match with statistical estimates of replication. Second, when the results of original

SUBMITTER: Patil P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4968573 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature