Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent ESRD Risk.

ABSTRACT: eGFR is a robust predictor of ESRD risk. However, the prognostic information gained from the past trajectory (slope) beyond that of the current eGFR is unclear. We examined 22 cohorts to determine the association of past slopes and current eGFR level with subsequent ESRD. We modeled hazard ratios as a spline function of slopes, adjusting for demographic variables, eGFR, and comorbidities. We used random effects meta-analyses to combine results across studies stratified by cohort type. We calculated the absolute risk of ESRD at 5 years after the last eGFR using the weighted average baseline risk. Overall, 1,080,223 participants experienced 5163 ESRD events during a mean follow-up of 2.0 years. In CKD cohorts, a slope of -6 versus 0 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year over the previous 3 years (a

SUBMITTER: Kovesdy CP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4978053 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature