Modeling Mosquito-Borne Disease Spread in U.S. Urbanized Areas: The Case of Dengue in Miami.

ABSTRACT: Expansion of mosquito-borne pathogens into more temperate regions of the world necessitates tools such as mathematical models for understanding the factors that contribute to the introduction and emergence of a disease in populations naïve to the disease. Often, these models are not developed and analyzed until after a pathogen is detected in a population. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit stochastic model parameterized with publicly available U.S. Census data for studying the potential for disease spread in Urbanized Areas of the United States. To illustrate the utility of the model, we specifically study the potential for introductions of dengue to lead to autochthonous transmission and outbreaks in a population representative of the Miami Urbanized Area, where introductions

SUBMITTER: Robert MA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4988691 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature