Projecting the COPD population and costs in England and Scotland: 2011 to 2030.

ABSTRACT: We aimed to estimate the prevalence, healthcare costs and number of deaths among people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in England and Scotland 2011-2030. We adapted the Dutch COPD Model by using English and Scottish demographic, COPD incidence, COPD prevalence, smoking prevalence and mortality data to make projections. In England, the prevalence of COPD was estimated to be 1.79% (95% uncertainty interval 1.77-1.81) in 2011, increasing to 2.19% (1.85-2.33) by 2030. In Scotland, prevalence was 2.03% (1.96-2.10) in 2011 increasing to 2.20% (1.98-2.40) in 2030. These increases were driven by more women developing COPD. Annual direct healthcare costs of COPD in England were estimated to increase from £1.50 billon (1.18-2.50) in 2011 to £2.32 (1.85-3.08) billion in 2030. In Sc

SUBMITTER: McLean S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5008118 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature