Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013-16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model.

Methodology/principal findings

The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network struc

SUBMITTER: Otsuki S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5033593 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature