Individualized prediction of lung-function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The rate of lung-function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) varies substantially among individuals. We sought to develop and validate an individualized prediction model for forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV₁) in current smokers with mild-to-moderate COPD.

Methods

Using data from a large long-term clinical trial (the Lung Health Study), we derived mixed-effects regression models to predict future FEV₁ values over 11 years according to clinical traits. We modelled heterogeneity by allowing regression coefficients to vary across individuals. Two independent cohorts with COPD were used for validating the equations.

Results

We used data from 5594 patients (mean age 48.4 yr, 63% men, mean baseline FEV₁

SUBMITTER: Zafari Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5047815 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature