Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.

Methods

To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2) in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated

SUBMITTER: Valeri L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5061396 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature