PREDICTIVE MODELING OF CHOLERA OUTBREAKS IN BANGLADESH.

ABSTRACT: Despite seasonal cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh, little is known about the relationship between environmental conditions and cholera cases. We seek to develop a predictive model for cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh based on environmental predictors. To do this, we estimate the contribution of environmental variables, such as water depth and water temperature, to cholera outbreaks in the context of a disease transmission model. We implement a method which simultaneously accounts for disease dynamics and environmental variables in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model. The entire system is treated as a continuous-time hidden Markov model, where the hidden Markov states are the numbers of people who are susceptible, infected, or recovered at each time point, and the observ

SUBMITTER: Koepke AA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5061460 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature