Day-to-Day Population Movement and the Management of Dengue Epidemics.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is a growing public health problem in tropical and subtropical cities. It is transmitted by mosquitoes, and the main strategy for epidemic prevention and control is insecticide fumigation. Effective management is, however, proving elusive. People's day-to-day movement about the city is believed to be an important factor in the epidemiological dynamics. We use a simple model to examine the fundamental roles of broad demographic and spatial structures in epidemic initiation, growth and control. We show that the key factors are local dilution, characterised by the vector-host ratio, and spatial connectivity, characterised by the extent of habitually variable movement patterns. Epidemic risk in the population is driven by the demographic groups that frequent the areas with the highest v

SUBMITTER: Falcon-Lezama JA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5069346 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature