The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical Modelling.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI) as "one-third" of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI.

Methods and findings

We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI) for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011) and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014. Gaussian process regression was used to generate ARIs for

SUBMITTER: Houben RM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5079585 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature