A Generic Quantitative Risk Assessment Framework for the Entry of Bat-Borne Zoonotic Viruses into the European Union.

ABSTRACT: Bat-borne viruses have been linked to a number of zoonotic diseases; in 2014 there have been human cases of Nipah virus (NiV) in Bangladesh and Ebola virus in West and Central Africa. Here we describe a model designed to provide initial quantitative predictions of the risk of entry of such viruses to European Union (EU) Member States (MSs) through four routes: human travel, legal trade (e.g. fruit and animal products), live animal movements and illegal importation of bushmeat. The model utilises available datasets to assess the movement via these routes between individual countries of the world and EU MSs. These data are combined with virus specific data to assess the relative risk of entry between EU MSs. As a case study, the model was parameterised for NiV. Scenario analyses showed that

SUBMITTER: Simons RR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5082878 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature