Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

ABSTRACT: Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From t

SUBMITTER: Prestele R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5111780 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature