Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Cancer incidence and mortality projections are important for understanding the evolving landscape for cancer risk factors as well as anticipating future burden on the health service.

Methods

We used an age-period-cohort model with natural cubic splines to estimate cancer cases and deaths from 2015 to 2035 based on 1979-2014 UK data. This was converted to rates using ONS population projections. Modified data sets were generated for breast and prostate cancers.

Results

Cancer incidence rates are projected to decrease by 0.03% in males and increase by 0.11% in females yearly between 2015 and 2035; thyroid, liver, oral and kidney cancer are among the fastest accelerating cancers. 243 690 female and 270 261 male cancer cases are projected for 2035. Breast and pr

SUBMITTER: Smittenaar CR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5117795 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature