Dataset Information

A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction.

ABSTRACT: The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy.

SUBMITTER: Alaminos D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5120822 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction.

Alaminos David D Del Castillo Agustín A Fernández Manuel Ángel MÁ

PloS one 20161123 11

The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this s ...[more]

PMID: 27880810

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Project description:IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6 million deaths worldwide and is a significant cause of mortality. Mortality dynamics vary significantly by country due to pathogen, host, social and environmental factors, in addition to vaccination and treatments. However, there is limited data on the relative contribution of different explanatory variables, which may explain changes in mortality over time. We, therefore, created a predictive model using orthogonal machine learning techniques to attempt to quantify the contribution of static and dynamic variables over time.MethodsA model was created using Partial Least Squares Regression trained on data from 2020 to rank order the significance and effect size of static variables on mortality per country. This model enables the prediction of mortality levels for countries based on demographics alone. Partial Least Squares Regression was then used to quantify how dynamic variables, including weather and non-pharmaceutical interventions, contributed to the overall mortality in 2020. Finally, mortality levels for the first 60 days of 2021 were predicted using rolling-window Elastic Net regression.ResultsThis model allowed prediction of deaths per day and quantification of the degree of influence of included variables, accounting for timing of occurrence or implementation. We found that the most parsimonious model could be reduced to six variables; three policy-related variables - COVID-19 testing policy, canceled public events policy, workplace closing policy; in addition to three environmental variables - maximum temperature per day, minimum temperature per day, and the dewpoint temperature per day.ConclusionCountry and population-level static and dynamic variables can be used to predict COVID-19 mortality, providing an example of how broad temporal data can inform a preparation and mitigation strategy for both COVID-19 and future pandemics and assist decision-makers by identifying population-level contributors, including interventions, that have the greatest influence in mitigating mortality, and optimizing the health and safety of populations.

Dataset Information

A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction.

Publications

A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction.

Similar Datasets

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