A Spatial Hierarchical Analysis of the Temporal Influences of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Weather on Dengue in Kalutara District, Sri Lanka.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is the major public health burden in Sri Lanka. Kalutara is one of the highly affected districts. Understanding the drivers of dengue is vital in controlling and preventing the disease spread. This study focuses on quantifying the influence of weather variability on dengue incidence over 10 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions of Kalutara district. Weekly weather variables and data on dengue notifications, measured at 10 MOH divisions in Kalutara from 2009 to 2013, were retrieved and analysed. Distributed lag non-linear model and hierarchical-analysis was used to estimate division specific and overall relationships between weather and dengue. We incorporated lag times up to 12 weeks and evaluated models based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Consistent exposure-response pat

SUBMITTER: Liyanage P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5129297 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature