Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change.

ABSTRACT: Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high atta

SUBMITTER: Pugh TA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5136618 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature