Spatiotemporal Analysis of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

ABSTRACT: In 2014-2016, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia in West Africa experienced the largest and longest Ebola epidemic since the discovery of the virus in 1976. During the epidemic, incidence data were collected and published at increasing resolution. To monitor the epidemic as it spread within and between districts, we develop an analysis method that exploits the full spatiotemporal resolution of the data by combining a local model for time-varying effective reproduction numbers with a gravity-type model for spatial dispersion of the infection. We test this method in simulations and apply it to the weekly incidences of confirmed and probable cases per district up to June 2015, as reported by the World Health Organization. Our results indicate that, of the newly infected cases, only a small perc

SUBMITTER: Backer JA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5145133 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature