Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming.

ABSTRACT: For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsibl

SUBMITTER: Good P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5150659 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature