Estimating age conditional probability of developing disease from surveillance data.

ABSTRACT: Fay, Pfeiffer, Cronin, Le, and Feuer (Statistics in Medicine 2003; 22; 1837-1848) developed a formula to calculate the age-conditional probability of developing a disease for the first time (ACPDvD) for a hypothetical cohort. The novelty of the formula of Fay et al (2003) is that one need not know the rates of first incidence of disease per person-years alive and disease-free, but may input the rates of first incidence per person-years alive only. Similarly the formula uses rates of death from disease and death from other causes per person-years alive. The rates per person-years alive are much easier to estimate than per person-years alive and disease-free. Fay et al (2003) used simple piecewise constant models for all three rate functions which have constant rates within each age group. I

SUBMITTER: Fay MP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC517510 | biostudies-literature | 2004 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature