Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication.

ABSTRACT: Yaws is targeted for eradication by 2020. The mainstay of the eradication strategy is mass treatment followed by case finding. Modeling has been used to inform programmatic requirements for other neglected tropical diseases and could provide insights into yaws eradication. We developed a model of yaws transmission varying the coverage and number of rounds of treatment. The estimated number of cases arising from an index case (basic reproduction number [R₀]) ranged from 1.08 to 3.32. To have 80% probability of achieving eradication, 8 rounds of treatment with 80% coverage were required at low estimates of R₀ (1.45). This requirement increased to 95% at high estimates of R₀ (2.47). Extending the treatment interval to 12 months increased requirements at all es

SUBMITTER: Marks M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5176210 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature