Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human-environment systems.

ABSTRACT: In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system's dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human-environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Mor

SUBMITTER: Bauch CT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5187665 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature