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Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II: Redefining the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model With Septic Shock Phenotype.

ABSTRACT: The Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model (PERSEVERE), a pediatric sepsis risk model, uses biomarkers to estimate baseline mortality risk for pediatric septic shock. It is unknown how PERSEVERE performs within distinct septic shock phenotypes. We tested PERSEVERE in children with septic shock and thrombocytopenia-associated multiple organ failure (TAMOF), and in those without new onset thrombocytopenia but with multiple organ failure (MOF).PERSEVERE-based mortality risk was generated for each study subject (n = 660). A priori, we determined that if PERSEVERE did not perform well in both the TAMOF and the MOF cohorts, we would revise PERSEVERE to incorporate admission platelet counts.Multiple PICUs in the United States.Standard care.PERSEVERE performed well in the TAMOF cohort (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUC], 0.84 [95% CI, 0.77-0.90]), but less well in the MOF cohort (AUC, 0.71 [0.61-0.80]). PERSEVERE was revised using 424 subjects previously reported in the derivation phase. PERSEVERE-II had an AUC of 0.89 (0.85-0.93) and performed equally well across TAMOF and MOF cohorts. PERSEVERE-II performed well when tested in 236 newly enrolled subjects. Sample size calculations for a clinical trial testing the efficacy of plasma exchange for children with septic shock and TAMOF indicated PERSEVERE-II-based stratification could substantially reduce the number of patients necessary, when compared with no stratification.Testing PERSEVERE in the context of septic shock phenotypes prompted a revision incorporating platelet count. PERSEVERE-II performs well upon testing, independent of TAMOF or MOF status. PERSEVERE-II could potentially serve as a prognostic enrichment tool.

SUBMITTER: Wong HR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5201138 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II: Redefining the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model With Septic Shock Phenotype.

Wong Hector R HR Cvijanovich Natalie Z NZ Anas Nick N Allen Geoffrey L GL Thomas Neal J NJ Bigham Michael T MT Weiss Scott L SL Fitzgerald Julie J Checchia Paul A PA Meyer Keith K Quasney Michael M Hall Mark M Gedeit Rainer R Freishtat Robert J RJ Nowak Jeffrey J Raj Shekhar S SS Gertz Shira S Howard Kelli K Harmon Kelli K Lahni Patrick P Frank Erin E Hart Kimberly W KW Nguyen Trung C TC Lindsell Christopher J CJ

Critical care medicine 20161101 11

<h4>Objective</h4>The Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model (PERSEVERE), a pediatric sepsis risk model, uses biomarkers to estimate baseline mortality risk for pediatric septic shock. It is unknown how PERSEVERE performs within distinct septic shock phenotypes. We tested PERSEVERE in children with septic shock and thrombocytopenia-associated multiple organ failure (TAMOF), and in those without new onset thrombocytopenia but with multiple organ failure (MOF).<h4>Design</h4>PERSEVERE-based mortali ...[more]

PMID: 27513537

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Project description:IntroductionThe intrinsic heterogeneity of clinical septic shock is a major challenge. For clinical trials, individual patient management, and quality improvement efforts, it is unclear which patients are least likely to survive and thus benefit from alternative treatment approaches. A robust risk stratification tool would greatly aid decision-making. The objective of our study was to derive and test a multi-biomarker-based risk model to predict outcome in pediatric septic shock.MethodsTwelve candidate serum protein stratification biomarkers were identified from previous genome-wide expression profiling. To derive the risk stratification tool, biomarkers were measured in serum samples from 220 unselected children with septic shock, obtained during the first 24 hours of admission to the intensive care unit. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was used to generate a decision tree to predict 28-day all-cause mortality based on both biomarkers and clinical variables. The derived tree was subsequently tested in an independent cohort of 135 children with septic shock.ResultsThe derived decision tree included five biomarkers. In the derivation cohort, sensitivity for mortality was 91% (95% CI 70 - 98), specificity was 86% (80 - 90), positive predictive value was 43% (29 - 58), and negative predictive value was 99% (95 - 100). When applied to the test cohort, sensitivity was 89% (64 - 98) and specificity was 64% (55 - 73). In an updated model including all 355 subjects in the combined derivation and test cohorts, sensitivity for mortality was 93% (79 - 98), specificity was 74% (69 - 79), positive predictive value was 32% (24 - 41), and negative predictive value was 99% (96 - 100). False positive subjects in the updated model had greater illness severity compared to the true negative subjects, as measured by persistence of organ failure, length of stay, and intensive care unit free days.ConclusionsThe pediatric sepsis biomarker risk model (PERSEVERE; PEdiatRic SEpsis biomarkEr Risk modEl) reliably identifies children at risk of death and greater illness severity from pediatric septic shock. PERSEVERE has the potential to substantially enhance clinical decision making, to adjust for risk in clinical trials, and to serve as a septic shock-specific quality metric.

Project description:ImportanceSepsis is a leading cause of death among children worldwide. Current pediatric-specific criteria for sepsis were published in 2005 based on expert opinion. In 2016, the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) defined sepsis as life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection, but it excluded children.ObjectiveTo update and evaluate criteria for sepsis and septic shock in children.Evidence reviewThe Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM) convened a task force of 35 pediatric experts in critical care, emergency medicine, infectious diseases, general pediatrics, nursing, public health, and neonatology from 6 continents. Using evidence from an international survey, systematic review and meta-analysis, and a new organ dysfunction score developed based on more than 3 million electronic health record encounters from 10 sites on 4 continents, a modified Delphi consensus process was employed to develop criteria.FindingsBased on survey data, most pediatric clinicians used sepsis to refer to infection with life-threatening organ dysfunction, which differed from prior pediatric sepsis criteria that used systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, which have poor predictive properties, and included the redundant term, severe sepsis. The SCCM task force recommends that sepsis in children be identified by a Phoenix Sepsis Score of at least 2 points in children with suspected infection, which indicates potentially life-threatening dysfunction of the respiratory, cardiovascular, coagulation, and/or neurological systems. Children with a Phoenix Sepsis Score of at least 2 points had in-hospital mortality of 7.1% in higher-resource settings and 28.5% in lower-resource settings, more than 8 times that of children with suspected infection not meeting these criteria. Mortality was higher in children who had organ dysfunction in at least 1 of 4-respiratory, cardiovascular, coagulation, and/or neurological-organ systems that was not the primary site of infection. Septic shock was defined as children with sepsis who had cardiovascular dysfunction, indicated by at least 1 cardiovascular point in the Phoenix Sepsis Score, which included severe hypotension for age, blood lactate exceeding 5 mmol/L, or need for vasoactive medication. Children with septic shock had an in-hospital mortality rate of 10.8% and 33.5% in higher- and lower-resource settings, respectively.Conclusions and relevanceThe Phoenix sepsis criteria for sepsis and septic shock in children were derived and validated by the international SCCM Pediatric Sepsis Definition Task Force using a large international database and survey, systematic review and meta-analysis, and modified Delphi consensus approach. A Phoenix Sepsis Score of at least 2 identified potentially life-threatening organ dysfunction in children younger than 18 years with infection, and its use has the potential to improve clinical care, epidemiological assessment, and research in pediatric sepsis and septic shock around the world.

Project description:BACKGROUND:While the process of sepsis-induced immunosuppression is now well described in adults, very little information is available on immune functions in pediatric sepsis. The current study investigated this in children with septic shock by performing immunomonitoring, including both innate (monocyte human leukocyte antigen-DR, mHLA-DR, expression) and adaptive immunity (lymphocyte subsets count), as well as cytokine concentrations (IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-1Ra, TNF-α, IFN-γ). Subsequent objectives were to assess the associations between inflammatory response, potential immunosuppression and secondary acquired infection occurrence. METHODS:Single-center prospective observational study, including children aged between 1 month and 18 years admitted to pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) for septic shock. Age-matched controls were children hospitalized for elective surgery without any infectious criteria. Blood was sampled at day 1-2, 3-5, and 7-9 after sepsis onset. mHLA-DR and lymphocyte subsets count were measured by flow cytometry and cytokine concentrations by Luminex technology. RESULTS:A total of 26 children and 30 controls were included. Patients had lymphopenia, and mHLA-DR levels were significantly lower than controls at each time point (p < 0.0001). All cytokines peaked at day 1-2. Children with secondary acquired infection had lower day 3-5 mHLA-DR and higher pro-inflammatory cytokine concentrations (IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-α) at day 1-2 compared to children without secondary acquired infection. CONCLUSIONS:The higher initial inflammatory cytokine production was, the more innate immunity was altered, while evaluated by low mHLA-DR expression. Children with decreased mHLA-DR expression developed more secondary acquired infections. Upon confirmation in multicenter cohorts, these results pave the way for immunostimulation for the most immunosuppressed children in order to prevent nosocomial infections in PICU. Trial registration PedIRIS study NCT02848144. Retrospectively registered 28 July 2016.

Project description:ImportanceThe Society of Critical Care Medicine Pediatric Sepsis Definition Task Force sought to develop and validate new clinical criteria for pediatric sepsis and septic shock using measures of organ dysfunction through a data-driven approach.ObjectiveTo derive and validate novel criteria for pediatric sepsis and septic shock across differently resourced settings.Design, setting, and participantsMulticenter, international, retrospective cohort study in 10 health systems in the US, Colombia, Bangladesh, China, and Kenya, 3 of which were used as external validation sites. Data were collected from emergency and inpatient encounters for children (aged <18 years) from 2010 to 2019: 3 049 699 in the development (including derivation and internal validation) set and 581 317 in the external validation set.ExposureStacked regression models to predict mortality in children with suspected infection were derived and validated using the best-performing organ dysfunction subscores from 8 existing scores. The final model was then translated into an integer-based score used to establish binary criteria for sepsis and septic shock.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome for all analyses was in-hospital mortality. Model- and integer-based score performance measures included the area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC; primary) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC; secondary). For binary criteria, primary performance measures were positive predictive value and sensitivity.ResultsAmong the 172 984 children with suspected infection in the first 24 hours (development set; 1.2% mortality), a 4-organ-system model performed best. The integer version of that model, the Phoenix Sepsis Score, had AUPRCs of 0.23 to 0.38 (95% CI range, 0.20-0.39) and AUROCs of 0.71 to 0.92 (95% CI range, 0.70-0.92) to predict mortality in the validation sets. Using a Phoenix Sepsis Score of 2 points or higher in children with suspected infection as criteria for sepsis and sepsis plus 1 or more cardiovascular point as criteria for septic shock resulted in a higher positive predictive value and higher or similar sensitivity compared with the 2005 International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference (IPSCC) criteria across differently resourced settings.Conclusions and relevanceThe novel Phoenix sepsis criteria, which were derived and validated using data from higher- and lower-resource settings, had improved performance for the diagnosis of pediatric sepsis and septic shock compared with the existing IPSCC criteria.

Dataset Information

Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II: Redefining the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model With Septic Shock Phenotype.

Publications

Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II: Redefining the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model With Septic Shock Phenotype.

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