Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Nino 2015.

ABSTRACT: Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R₀ mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two key mosquito vector species: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus The model was parameterized and calibrated using the most up to date information from the available literature. It was then driven by observed gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for the period 1950-2015. We find that the transmission risk in South America in 2015 was the highest since 1950. This maximum is related to favoring temperature conditions that caused the simulated biting rates to be largest and mosquito m

SUBMITTER: Caminade C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5224381 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature