Dataset Information

The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables.

Materials and methods

This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into two cohorts: a derivation one (80%) and a validation one (20%). Decision trees were built upon applying the CHAIRT algorithm for the selection of variables.

Results

Three-level decision trees were built for the risk of disabling and reoperation, whereas the risk of surgery was described in a two-level one. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the curves (AUC) Was higher than 70% for all outcomes. The defined risk cut-off values show usefulness for the assessed outcomes: risk levels above 75% for disabling had an odds test positivity of 4.06 [3.50-4.71], whereas risk levels below 34% and 19% excluded surgery and reoperation with an odds test negativity of 0.15 [0.09-0.25] and 0.50 [0.24-1.01], respectively. Overall, patients with B2 or B3 phenotype had a higher proportion of disabling disease and surgery, while patients with later introduction of pharmacological therapeutic (1 months after initial surgery) had a higher proportion of reoperation.

Conclusions

The decision-tree based approach used in this study, with demographic and clinical variables, has shown to be a valid and useful approach to depict such risks of disabling, surgery and reoperation.

SUBMITTER: Dias CC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5321294 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

Dias Cláudia Camila CC Pereira Rodrigues Pedro P Fernandes Samuel S Portela Francisco F Ministro Paula P Martins Diana D Sousa Paula P Lago Paula P Rosa Isadora I Correia Luis L Moura Santos Paula P Magro Fernando F

PloS one 20170222 2

<h4>Introduction</h4>Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into t ...[more]

PMID: 28225800

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Project description:BackgroundHeritability of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is estimated at 74% and genetic contributors have been widely sought. The ε4 allele of apolipoprotein E (APOE) remains the strongest common risk factor for AD, with numerous other common variants contributing only modest risk for disease. Variability in clinical presentation of AD, which is typically amnestic (AmnAD) but can less commonly involve visuospatial, language and/or dysexecutive syndromes (atypical or AtAD), further complicates genetic analyses. Taking a multi-locus approach may increase the ability to identify individuals at highest risk for any AD syndrome. In this study, we sought to develop and investigate the utility of a multi-variant genetic risk assessment on a cohort of phenotypically heterogeneous patients with sporadic AD clinical diagnoses.MethodsWe genotyped 75 variants in our cohort and, using a two-staged study design, we developed a 17-marker AD risk score in a Discovery cohort (n = 59 cases, n = 133 controls) then assessed its utility in a second Validation cohort (n = 126 cases, n = 150 controls). We also performed a data-driven decision tree analysis to identify genetic and/or demographic criteria that are most useful for accurately differentiating all AD cases from controls.ResultsWe confirmed APOE ε4 as a strong risk factor for AD. A 17-marker risk panel predicted AD significantly better than APOE genotype alone (P < 0.00001) in the Discovery cohort, but not in the Validation cohort. In decision tree analyses, we found that APOE best differentiated cases from controls only in AmnAD but not AtAD. In AtAD, HFE SNP rs1799945 was the strongest predictor of disease; variation in HFE has previously been implicated in AD risk in non-ε4 carriers.ConclusionsOur study suggests that APOE ε4 remains the best predictor of broad AD risk when compared to multiple other genetic factors with modest effects, that phenotypic heterogeneity in broad AD can complicate simple polygenic risk modeling, and supports the association between HFE and AD risk in individuals without APOE ε4.

Project description:Psychiatric co-morbidity, in particular major depression and anxiety, is common in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Prior studies examining this may be confounded by the co-existence of functional bowel symptoms. Limited data exist examining an association between depression or anxiety and disease-specific endpoints such as bowel surgery.To examine the frequency of depression and anxiety (prior to surgery or hospitalisation) in a large multi-institution electronic medical record (EMR)-based cohort of CD and UC patients; to define the independent effect of psychiatric co-morbidity on risk of subsequent surgery or hospitalisation in CD and UC, and to identify the effects of depression and anxiety on healthcare utilisation in our cohort.Using a multi-institution cohort of patients with CD and UC, we identified those who also had co-existing psychiatric co-morbidity (major depressive disorder or generalised anxiety). After excluding those diagnosed with such co-morbidity for the first time following surgery, we used multivariate logistic regression to examine the independent effect of psychiatric co-morbidity on IBD-related surgery and hospitalisation. To account for confounding by disease severity, we adjusted for a propensity score estimating likelihood of psychiatric co-morbidity influenced by severity of disease in our models.A total of 5405 CD and 5429 UC patients were included in this study; one-fifth had either major depressive disorder or generalised anxiety. In multivariate analysis, adjusting for potential confounders and the propensity score, presence of mood or anxiety co-morbidity was associated with a 28% increase in risk of surgery in CD (OR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.03-1.57), but not UC (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.80-1.28). Psychiatric co-morbidity was associated with increased healthcare utilisation.Depressive disorder or generalised anxiety is associated with a modestly increased risk of surgery in patients with Crohn's disease. Interventions addressing this may improve patient outcomes.

Dataset Information

The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

Introduction

Materials and methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

Similar Datasets

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