Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change.

ABSTRACT: To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random Forests to model probabilities of occurrence and compared the time periods 1981-2010 (hindcast) and 2041-2070 (forecast) in "model spac

SUBMITTER: Reese GC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5330909 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature