Expected effects of adopting a 9 month regimen for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a population modelling analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In May, 2016, WHO endorsed a 9 month regimen for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis that is cheaper and potentially more effective than the conventional, longer (20-24 month) therapy. We aimed to investigate the population-level implications of scaling up this new regimen.

Methods

In this population modelling analysis, we developed a dynamic transmission model to simulate the introduction of this short-course regimen as an instantaneous switch in 2016. We projected the corresponding percentage reduction in the incidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis by 2024 compared with continued use of longer therapy. In the primary analysis in a representative southeast Asian setting, we assumed that the short-course regimen would double treatment access (through savings in

SUBMITTER: Kendall EA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5332590 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature