MDR-TB treatment as prevention: The projected population-level impact of expanded treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In 2013, approximately 480,000 people developed active multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), while only 97,000 started MDR-TB treatment. We sought to estimate the impact of improving access to MDR-TB diagnosis and treatment, under multiple diagnostic algorithm and treatment regimen scenarios, on ten-year projections of MDR-TB incidence and mortality.

Methods

We constructed a dynamic transmission model of an MDR-TB epidemic in an illustrative East/Southeast Asian setting. Using approximate Bayesian computation, we investigated a wide array of potential epidemic trajectories consistent with current notification data and known TB epidemiology.

Results

Despite an overall projected decline in TB incidence, data-consistent simulations suggested that MDR-TB i

SUBMITTER: Kendall EA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5342197 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature