A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study.

ABSTRACT: To inform the UK antimicrobial resistance strategy, a risk assessment was undertaken of the likelihood, over a five-year time-frame, of the emergence and widespread dissemination of pan-drug-resistant (PDR) Gram-negative bacteria that would pose a major public health threat by compromising effective healthcare delivery. Subsequent impact over five- and 20-year time-frames was assessed in terms of morbidity and mortality attributable to PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia. A Bayesian approach, combining available data with expert prior opinion, was used to determine the probability of the emergence, persistence and spread of PDR bacteria. Overall probability was modelled using Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates of impact were also obtained using Bayesian methods. The estimated probability of wides

SUBMITTER: Carter D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5372989 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature