A large-scale stochastic spatiotemporal model for Aedes albopictus-borne chikungunya epidemiology.

ABSTRACT: Chikungunya is a viral disease transmitted to humans primarily via the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes. The virus caused a major epidemic in the Indian Ocean in 2004, affecting millions of inhabitants, while cases have also been observed in Europe since 2007. We developed a stochastic spatiotemporal model of Aedes albopictus-borne chikungunya transmission based on our recently developed environmentally-driven vector population dynamics model. We designed an integrated modelling framework incorporating large-scale gridded climate datasets to investigate disease outbreaks on Reunion Island and in Italy. We performed Bayesian parameter inference on the surveillance data, and investigated the validity and applicability of the underlying biological assumptions. The model successfully represe

SUBMITTER: Erguler K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5375158 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature