Demographic transition and the dynamics of measles in six provinces in China: A modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Industrialization and demographic transition generate nonstationary dynamics in human populations that can affect the transmission and persistence of infectious diseases. Decades of increasing vaccination and development have led to dramatic declines in the global burden of measles, but the virus remains persistent in much of the world. Here we show that a combination of demographic transition, as a result of declining birth rates, and reduced measles prevalence, due to improved vaccination, has shifted the age distribution of susceptibility to measles throughout China.

Methods and findings

We fit a novel time-varying catalytic model to three decades of age-specific measles case reporting in six provinces in China to quantify the change in the age-specific force o

SUBMITTER: Li S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5380361 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature